CJP to take back the Kalashnikov licenses; Pakistan receives USD 705.6 million from IMF as second tranche
In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #48
All set for the general elections, says CEC
On 18 January, The News International reported that according to Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sikandar Sultan Raja, the government and law enforcement organizations must make prompt administrative and security arrangements to guarantee the orderly, secure, and successful conduct of elections. Inspectors General of Police (IGPs), chief Commissioner Islamabad, and chief secretaries from each of the four provinces told the gathering that all the necessary preparations had been made for handling any eventuality and conducting elections. The CEC stressed the need for safety and security to give voters, political parties, and candidates a safe environment to exercise their right to vote. Furthermore, the CEC Sikandar Sultan said that if any candidate or other person violates the law and code of conduct, necessary action would be taken against them. He added, “There will be strict monitoring of elections and polls will be held according to schedule.” The meeting also discussed that the repair work of flood-affected polling booths is going on and will be completed before the elections. (Faizan Bangash and Mumtaz Alvi, “All set for Feb 8 polls, ECP told,” The News International, 18 January 2024)
Imran Khan to seek Supreme Court’s help for forthcoming elections
On 18 January, Dawn reported that Imran Khan, the founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), may petition the Supreme Court to run in the elections on 8 February, following the dismissal of his appeal against the rejection of his nomination papers from NA-89 (Mianwali) and NA-122 (Lahore) by a full bench of the Lahore High Court (LHC). PTI spokesperson informed Dawn that, “A forum [Supreme Court] for the appeal is available, but we will make this decision after consultations with the party founder incarcerated in Adiala Jail.” Subsequently, the appeals of PTI Vice Chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi, President Parvez Elahi, former federal ministers Hammad Azhar and Fawad Chaudhry, and the leader of the Islamkam-i-Pakistan Party, against the denial of their nomination papers were also rejected by a three-member panel led by Justice Ali Baqar Najafi. Imran had attacked the rulings of the appellate tribunals and returning officers (ROs) that had rejected his nomination papers from NA-89, Mianwali, and NA-122, Lahore. The main reason Khan’s nomination papers were turned down was his conviction in the Toshakhana case. (Wajih Ahmad Sheikh, “Apex court to be Imran’s last hope for polls,” Dawn, 18 January 2024)
SECURITY
Security forces should remain extra vigilant: Dawn editorial
On 18 January, an editorial in Dawn titled, ‘Keeping focus’ states that with the elections to be conducted in less than a month, there are serious concerns regarding the safety of the electoral candidates who are involved in political campaigns as well as for the people who are involved in the election duties. According to the editorial, the overall security setting of the province is revealed through the recent statistical data on terrorists’ activities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Despite the data and reports from KP security officials, the senior law enforcement officials claim the situation is tractable. The editorial added, “There is no denying that the institutions responsible for internal security have their task cut out for them: it is their duty to ensure peace despite all challenges.” Probing ahead, the law enforcement and security forces have a fair understanding of the challenges and will be able to act rightly with the support from the government, the editorial added. The piece further stated, “The enemies of Pakistan have repeatedly attempted to assert themselves during pivotal periods in its sociopolitical history.” While tracing history, the editorial asserts that the 2008 general elections witnessed perilous acts of violence, however, the electoral situation has improved in the last two elections 2013 and 2018 respectively. The editorial concludes by saying that, despite Pakistan’s strong retaliation on terrorism, if the focus on domestic security shifts then there could be a situation of hostilities. (‘Keeping focus’, Dawn, 18 January 2024)
CJP to take back the Kalashnikov licenses
On 17 January, the Supreme Court sought to complete the details of permits and licenses issued for the weapons of the Prohibited Bore (PB). This comes after the surge of unrestricted availability of ‘Kalashnikovs,’ commonly known as AK-47. The Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Qazi Faez Isa suggested passing orders to take away the licenses and retrieve all the restricted weapons that were issued to individuals. He stated: “The easy accessibility to narcotics and prohibited weapons has destroyed the very fabric of the country (Nasir Iqbal, “CJP hints at withdrawal of Kalashnikov licences,” Dawn, 18 January 2024)
ECONOMY
How to “prudently” manage Pakistan’s economy: An opinion in Dawn
On 18 January, Rashid Amjad, in an opinion in Dawn titled “Time to reflect” critiqued the World Bank’s five-point development strategy to place Pakistan on the path of a “sustained and equitable growth,” arguing that they “overlook the real problem.” As per Amjad, the real issue is that whenever measures are taken to push Pakistan’s economy forward, the economy comes to a “grinding halt.” He pointed out that the country had been experiencing “recurring stop-go cycles” over the last three decades, exemplified by the recent economic downturn. Amjad highlighted the negative consequences of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) conditionalities, specifically the market-driven exchange rate and reduced tariffs, suggesting that they exacerbate structural deficiencies. These conditionalities supposedly “failed” to consider how Pakistan’s “multilayered” foreign exchange market, characterized by remittances from a large diaspora, actually functions. Amjad proposed crucial changes for the next government, advocating for a shift to a managed exchange rate, “innovative solutions” to build reserves rapidly, and setting a red line to prevent reserves from falling below a certain level. He also emphasized the need for a “prudently managed” exchange rate to revive growth and ensure macroeconomic stability. (Rashid Amjad, “Time to reflect,” Dawn, 18 January 2024)
Pakistan’s FDI surges by 35 per cent to USD 863 million in the first half of FY24
On 17 January, the State Bank of Pakistan issued data highlighting a 35 per cent increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan to USD 863 million in the first six months of FY24. The surge was driven by a significant rise in December 2023 and robust inflows from Hong Kong and the Netherlands. December’s FDI inflows witnessed a 540 per cent increase, reaching USD 211 million in December 2023 compared to USD 33.1 million in December 2022. The power sector brought in the maximum amount of FDI at USD 433.5 million, with oil and gas receiving USD 129.8 million and financial business receiving USD 91.1 million. While China remained the top investor, with investments of USD 292.8 million, inflows from Hong Kong and the Netherlands contributed substantially to the overall growth. Despite this surge, from a regional perspective (except Afghanistan), Pakistan has been receiving the lowest level of FDI. Further, while analysts have expected the country to receive even more FDI in the coming months, Pakistan is still dealing with reputational issues. A recent World Bank report added that the uncertainty around the upcoming elections across the region could negatively affect foreign investment. (Shahid Iqbal, “FDI rises 35pc on low outflows in July-Dec,” Dawn, 18 January 2024; “FDI jumps 35pc in first half of FY2024, power sector lags,” The News International, 18 January 2024)
Pakistan’s current account records USD 397 million surplus in December 2023
On 17 January, data released by the State Bank of Pakistan highlighted that Pakistan’s current account marked a significant surplus of USD 397 million in December 2023, contributing to an overall surplus of USD 198 million for the second quarter of FY24. The surplus was attributed to increased exports, higher remittances, and a notable decline in imports. The current account deficit for the first half of FY24 was USD 831 million, a significant reduction from USD 3.63 billion in the same period of FY23. Analysts see this as a positive development, although concerns about lower imports impacting industrial growth have been raised. (Shahid Iqbal, “Current account posts $397m surplus,” Dawn, 18 January 2024)
Pakistan receives USD 705.6 million from IMF as second tranche
On 17 January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on X that it had received USD 705.6 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the second tranche of a USD three billion bailout. This development followed a “successful completion of the first review by the Executive Board of IMF under Stand By Arrangement (SBA).” The funds will contribute to bolstering foreign exchange reserves and supporting the national currency. In addition, the SBP confirmed that the UAE granted payment relief by rolling over a USD two billion loan that was set to mature in January 2024. According to the head of research of the Pakistani business conglomerate Arif Habib Limited, Tahir Abbas, the IMF disbursement would help raise SBP reserves to USD 8.9 billion, while the UAE’s rollover would “help the country fund the external financing gap for FY24.” (Erum Zaidi, “Pakistan gets $705.6m IMF tranche,” The News International, 18 January 2024)
PROVINCES
Balochistan: Protests against extrajudicial killing and enforced disappearances continue
On 18 January, Dawn reported that protests against the alleged extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances, as well as the government’s alleged disregard for the demands of the Turbat long marchers, have continued for the past three weeks. The protests are carried out in several towns within Makran. The protesters have been staging a sit-in protest in front of the National Press Club in Islamabad. The initiative is being led by Dr Mahrang Baloch. The demonstrators include activists, political leaders, women, and children respectively. They expressed their concerns by holding placards and banners and marched on the prominent roads of the port city of Gwadar. (Behram Baloch, “Protests against extrajudicial killings, disappearances continue,” Dawn, 18 January 2024)
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“Pakistan knocks out more than half a dozen terrorist hideouts inside Iran using multiple air, ground systems and resources, say officials. Military high command watches the ops execution live in ops room. Officials hope Iran wont take more chances. Border area in high alert.”
- Syed Talat Hussain
Pakistan has received the next installment of $70 million from the IMF, bringing the total disbursement to $1.9 billion. After the latest economic review, Pakistan is set to receive an additional $1.1 billion.
-Sheheryar
“Politics in Pakistan is not about alternative policies or visions; it is deeply personal and factional. Some factions, or parties, have evolved into dynasties while others are propelled by the populist rhetoric of a charismatic celebrity.”
-Raza Ahmad Rumi
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Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, ‘Climate-conflict nexus’
Dawn, 18 January 2024
“Climate threats have not spared any region in Pakistan. They manifest themselves in floods, droughts, heatwaves, glacial outbursts, seawater intrusion, and tropical storms. The list is long — and growing. In fact, some areas now face what climate scientists call compound impact disasters; that is, one extreme weather event (EWE) triggering another. The climate-conflict nexus often intensifies resource-based clashes arising from the absence of clear land tenure systems, water insecurity, crop failure, commodity price hikes, and environmental degradation. The last one also reduces the ecosystem’s capacity to support our growing population. Climate-triggered disasters potentially stoke new or old and simmering community-level tensions that turn into outright conflicts. These are intensified by the slow onset of climate change. Growing social inequalities, low economic growth, displacement, migration, and weak institutions make matters worse. It must be recognized that climatic change does not always cause conflicts. It does, however, provide the fuel for prevailing environmental, economic, and social factors to turn into conflicts. It is important to recognise that EWEs accelerate the need for adaptation by communities, but also reduce the latter’s ability to adapt on their own.”
Editorial, ‘Iranian strikes’
Dawn, 18 January 2024
“Relations between Pakistan and Iran stand at a very delicate juncture after the latter struck targets inside Pakistani territory on Tuesday. While Tehran has claimed it hit “strongholds” of the Jaish al-Adl terrorist group in the air strikes, Pakistan says two minors had lost their lives in the Panjgur attack. On Monday, Iran had carried out similar strikes inside Iraq and Syria, hitting what it said were “spy headquarters” and “terrorist” bases in these states. The Foreign Office has reacted with a sternly worded statement, condemning this unjustifiable violation of Pakistani sovereignty and warning of “serious consequences”. Indeed, the attack, as it said, is “completely unacceptable” and Tehran should take note. The situation is deteriorating rapidly, as on Wednesday Pakistan recalled its ambassador from Tehran and suspended all high-level bilateral visits. The Iranian envoy in Pakistan, currently in his home country, will also not be allowed to return to Islamabad.”
Rashid Amjad, ‘Time to reflect’
Dawn, 18 January 2024
“The IMF’s solution to our recurring stop-go cycles was to opt for a market-driven exchange rate and reduce tariffs on imported raw material to encourage more competitive exports — which, in theory, was not unwise. But in doing so, it failed to take into account the working of Pakistan’s complex, multilayered, imperfect foreign exchange market. With a large diaspora and migrant workers abroad who send back as remittances an amount equal to or slightly more than our total export earnings, foreign exchange transfers by resident Pakistanis (including for investment in real estate abroad), hoarders, smugglers and profiteers in the domestic market had disastrous consequences. The rupee-dollar exchange rate came crashing down from Rs110 in 2018 to Rs340 in 2023 once the market-driven exchange rate was introduced, triggering uncertainty and fanning inflation. Foreign reserves again fell to disastrously low levels, fuelled also by large inflows of imports resulting from lower tariffs, thereby bringing the economy to the very edge of default. The exchange rate would have gone further down — possibly to Rs400 by June 2024 — but for the timely strong-arm action taken by the government’s new and powerful economic decision-making body, the Special Investment Facilitation Council. The SIFC came down hard on hoarders, profiteers and illegal currency networks manipulating the exchange rate market (including some commercial banks, one is sorry to suggest). Since then, the exchange rate has steadied at between Rs280 and Rs300 to the dollar.”
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“Real leadership in any organisation is about removing orphaned disputes from the system.”
- An opinion in Dawn, ‘Orphaned disputes’
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